Francesco Paolo Conteduca

ESCB Occasional Papers

• Fragmentation and the future of GVCs
  
  with Michele Mancini, Giacomo Romanini, Simona Giglioli, Alessandro Borin, Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lukas Boeckelmann, and Baptiste Meunier, Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2025.
• Navigating a fragmenting global trading system: insights for central banks
  
  with Maria Grazia Attinasi and Michele Mancini (editors), European Central Bank Occasional Papers, 2024.
• Trade fragmentation unveiled: five facts on the reconfiguration of global, US and EU trade
  
  with Simona Giglioli, Claire Giordano, Michele Mancini, and Ludovic Panon, Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2024.
• It's a match! Linking foreign counterparts in Italian customs data to their balance sheets
  
  with Marta Crispino, Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2023.
• Quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine
  
  with Alessandro Borin, Enrica Di Stefano, Vanessa Gunnella, Michele Mancini, and Ludovic Panon, Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2022.
• An epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with self-adaptive containment measures
  
  with Sabina Marchetti, Alessandro Borin, Giuseppe Ilardi, Giorgio Guzzetta, Piero Poletti, Patrizio Pezzotti, Antonino Bella, Paola Stefanelli, Flavia Riccardo, Stefano Merler, Andrea Brandolini, Silvio Brusaferro, Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2022.
• Forecasting Italian GDP Growth with Epidemiological Data
  
  with Valentina Aprigliano, Alessandro Borin, Simone Emiliozzi, Marco Flaccadoro, Sabina Marchetti, and Stefania Villa, Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2021.

VoxEU Columns

• Hidden exposures in domestic supply chains: The spread of foreign trade risks
  with Alessandro Borin, Fabrizio Leone, Michele Mancini, and Patrick Zoi, December 2025.
• Roaring tariffs: The global impact of the 2025 US trade war
  with Michele Mancini and Alessandro Borin, May 2025.
• The impact of EU sanctions on Russian imports
  with Alessandro Borin, Gabriele Cappadona, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Oleg Itskhoki, Michele Mancini, Maxim Mironov, and Elina Ribakova, May 2023.
• The impact of the war on Russian imports: A counterfactual analysis
  with Alessandro Borin and Michele Mancini, November 2022.

Banca d'Italia Covid-19 Notes

• Measuring Covid-19 restrictions in Italy during the second wave
  March 2021.
• Mobility before government restrictions in the wake of Covid-19
  with Ines Buono, November 2020.