Welcome to my webpage

I am a senior economist at the Bank of Italy (World Trade and Emerging Market Economies Unit).

My research interests focus on international trade, particularly the determinants of multinational production. I also worked on the relationship between Covid-19 and economic activity.

Publications

• Trade fragmentation unveiled: Five Facts on the Reconfiguration of Global, US and EU Trade (joint with Simona Giglioli, Claire Giordano, Michele Mancini, and Ludovic Panon). Journal of Industrial and Business Economics (forthcoming)
  (Previous version Bank of Italy, QEF 881 (2024))

• The real-time impact of the war on Russian imports: a synthetic control method approach (joint with Michele Mancini and Alessandro Borin). The World Trade Review, vol. 23(4), pp. 433-447 (2024)

• It’s a Match! Linking Foreign Counterparts in Italian Customs Data to Their Balance Sheets (joint with Marta Crispino). International Economics, 179, 100511 (2024)

• Trade Decoupling from Russia (joint with Alessandro Borin, Enrica Di Stefano, Vanessa Gunnella, Michele Mancini, and Ludovic Panon). International Economics, 175, pp. 25 - 44 (2023)
  (Previously circulated as Quantitative Assessment of the Economic Impact of the Trade Disruptions Following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine)

• Reasoning on Company Takeovers: From Tactic to Strategy (joint with Luigi Bellomarini, Lorenzo Bencivelli, Claudia Biancotti, Livia Blasi, Andrea Gentili, Rosario Laurendi, Davide Magnanimi, Michele Savini Zangrandi, Flavia Tonelli, Stefano Ceri, Davide Benedetto, Markus Nissl, and Emanuel Sallinger). Data & Knowledge Engineering, 141, 102073 (2022)

• An epidemic model for SARS-COV-2 with self-adaptive containment measures (joint with Sabina Marchetti, Alessandro Borin, Giuseppe Ilardi, Giorgio Guzzetta, Piero Poletti, Antonino Bella, Paola Stefanelli, Flavia Riccardo, Stefano Merler, Andrea Brandolini, Silvio Brusaferro). PLOS One, vol. 17(7), e0272009 (2022) [Replication package]

• A new dataset for local and national COVID-19-related restrictions in Italy (joint with Alessandro Borin). The Italian Economic Journal, vol. 8(2), pp. 435 – 470 (2022) [Data]

Working papers

• The Structure of Multinational Firms under Demand Risk (joint with Ekaterina Kazakova)

• Serving Abroad: Export, M&A, and Greenfield Investment (joint with Ekaterina Kazakova)

• Fragmentation and the future of GVCs (joint with Michele Mancini, Simona Giglioli, Giacomo Romanini, Alessandro Borin, Enrica Di Stefano, Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lukas Boeckelmann, and Baptiste Meunier)

• Natural disasters and markups (joint with Ludovic Panon)

Policy papers

• Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data (joint with Valentina Aprigliano, Alessandro Borin, Simone Emiliozzi, Marco Flaccadoro, Sabina Marchetti, and Stefania Villa). Bank of Italy, QEF 664 (2021)

• Mobility and Consumption Choices during the COVID-19 Pandemic (joint with Ines Buono)
  (Previous version circulated as Banca d’Italia Covid-19 Note)

• Measuring COVID-19 Restrictions in Italy During the Second Wave

• Fighting COVID-19: measuring the restrictiveness of government policies (joint with Michele Mancini, Luca Rossi, and Flavia Tonelli)

• Aggiornamento sull’evoluzione della pandemia COVID-19 (joint with Alessandro Borin, Giuseppe Ilardi, Michele Mancini, and Luca Rossi)

• The impact of the war on Russian imports: A counterfactual analysis (joint with Alessandro Borin and Michele Mancini). VoxEU column, November 9, 2022.

• The impact of EU sanctions on Russian imports (joint with Alessandro Borin, Gabriele Cappadona, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Oleg Itskhoki, Michele Mancini, Maxim Mironov, Elina Ribakova). VoxEU column, May 29, 2023.

Work in process

• Natural Disasters and Global Sourcing: New Evidence from Firm-to-Firm Transactions (joint with Alessandro Borin, Andrea Linarello, Michele Mancini, Ludovic Panon, and Sebastian Stumpner)

• FDI Policy and Firm Performance: Evidence from India (joint with Ekaterina Kazakova)

• Climate Change and Fragmentation (joint with Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lukas Boeckelmann, Bernardo de Castro Martins, Baptiste Meunier, Alessandro Borin, and Michele Mancini)

Contacts