Welcome to my webpage

I am an economist at the Bank of Italy (World trade and emerging market economies division).

My current research interests are international trade and industrial organization with a focus on the determinants of multinational production. I also work on the relation between Covid-19 and the economic activity.

Click here to view my CV.

Publications

• Trade Decoupling from Russia (joint with Alessandro Borin, Enrica Di Stefano, Vanessa Gunnella, Michele Mancini, and Ludovic Panon). International Economics, 175, pp. 25 - 44 (2023)
  (Previously circulated as “Quantitative Assessment of the Economic Impact of the Trade Disruptions Following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine”)

• Reasoning on Company Takeovers: From Tactic to Strategy (joint with Luigi Bellomarini, Lorenzo Bencivelli, Claudia Biancotti, Livia Blasi, Andrea Gentili, Rosario Laurendi, Davide Magnanimi, Michele Savini Zangrandi, Flavia Tonelli, Stefano Ceri, Davide Benedetto, Markus Nissl, and Emanuel Sallinger). Data & Knowledge Engineering, 141, 102073 (2022)

• An epidemic model for SARS-COV-2 with self-adaptive containment measures (joint with Sabina Marchetti, Alessandro Borin, Giuseppe Ilardi, Giorgio Guzzetta, Piero Poletti, Antonino Bella, Paola Stefanelli, Flavia Riccardo, Stefano Merler, Andrea Brandolini, Silvio Brusaferro). PLOS One, vol. 17(7), e0272009 (2022) [Replication package]

• A new dataset for local and national COVID-19-related restrictions in Italy (joint with Alessandro Borin). The Italian Economic Journal, vol. 8(2), pp. 435 – 470 (2022) [Data]

Working papers

• The real-time impact of the war on Russian imports: a synthetic control method approach (joint with Alessandro Borin and Michele Mancini)

• The Structure of Multinational Firms under Demand Risk (joint with Ekaterina Kazakova)

• Serving Abroad: Export, M&A, and Greenfield Investment (joint with Ekaterina Kazakova)

Policy papers

• Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data (joint with Valentina Aprigliano, Alessandro Borin, Simone Emiliozzi, Marco Flaccadoro, Sabina Marchetti, and Stefania Villa). Bank of Italy, QEF 664 (2021)

• Mobility and Consumption Choices during the COVID-19 Pandemic (joint with Ines Buono Previous version available as Banca d’Italia Covid-19 Note

• Measuring COVID-19 Restrictions in Italy During the Second Wave

• Fighting COVID-19: measuring the restrictiveness of government policies (joint with Michele Mancini, Luca Rossi, and Flavia Tonelli)

• Aggiornamento sull’evoluzione della pandemia COVID-19 (joint with Alessandro Borin, Giuseppe Ilardi, Michele Mancini, and Luca Rossi)

• The impact of the war on Russian imports: A counterfactual analysis (joint with Alessandro Borin and Michele Mancini). VoxEU column, November 9, 2022.

• The impact of EU sanctions on Russian imports (joint with Alessandro Borin, Gabriele Cappadona, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Oleg Itskhoki, Michele Mancini, Maxim Mironov, Elina Ribakova). VoxEU column, May 29, 2023.

Work in process

• Natural Disasters and Global Sourcing: New Evidence from Firm-to-Firm Transactions (joint with Alessandro Borin, Andrea Linarello, and Ludovic Panon)

• FDI Policy and Firm Performance: Evidence from India (joint with Ekaterina Kazakova)

• It’s A Match! Linking Foreign Counterparts In Italian Customs Data To Their Balance Sheets (joint with Marta Crispino)

• Natural disasters and markups (joint with Ludovic Panon)

Contacts

francescopaolo.conteduca@bancaditalia.it

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