Policy Papers and Notes – Francesco Paolo Conteduca

ESCB Occasional Papers

China Shock 2.0: Structural Drivers and Implications for the Euro Area

with Valentina Aprigliano, Lorenzo Bencivelli, Alessandro Borin , Francesco Corsello , Stefano Federico , Claire Giordano, Fabrizio Leone , Michele Mancini , Ludovic Panon , Lilia Patrignani, Stefano Pica . Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2026.
US Tariffs and Italian Firms: Mapping Network Exposure and Early Impact from Survey Data

with Andrea Benecchi, Alessandro Borin , Fabrizio Leone, Michele Mancini , Lucia Modugno, Matteo Mongardini, Giulio Papini, and Patrick Zoi. Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2025.
Fragmentation and the Future of GVCs

with Michele Mancini , Giacomo Romanini , Simona Giglioli , Alessandro Borin , Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lukas Boeckelmann, and Baptiste Meunier. Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2025.
Navigating a Fragmenting Global Trading System: Insights for Central Banks

with Maria Grazia Attinasi and Michele Mancini (editors), European Central Bank Occasional Papers, 2024.
Trade Fragmentation Unveiled: Five Facts on the Reconfiguration of Global, US and EU Trade

with Simona Giglioli , Claire Giordano, Michele Mancini , and Ludovic Panon . Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2024.
It's a Match! Linking Foreign Counterparts in Italian Customs Data to Their Balance Sheets

with Marta Crispino . Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2023.
Quantitative Assessment of the Economic Impact of the Trade Disruptions Following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

with Alessandro Borin , Enrica Di Stefano, Vanessa Gunnella, Michele Mancini , and Ludovic Panon . Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2022.
An Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2 with Self-Adaptive Containment Measures

with Sabina Marchetti, Alessandro Borin , Giuseppe Ilardi, Giorgio Guzzetta, Piero Poletti, Patrizio Pezzotti, Antonino Bella, Paola Stefanelli, Flavia Riccardo, Stefano Merler, Andrea Brandolini, and Silvio Brusaferro. Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2022.
Forecasting Italian GDP Growth with Epidemiological Data

with Valentina Aprigliano, Alessandro Borin , Simone Emiliozzi, Marco Flaccadoro , Sabina Marchetti, and Stefania Villa . Banca d'Italia Occasional Papers, 2021.

VoxEU Columns

China Shock 2.0 and the Euro Area: Cheaper Imports, Tougher Competition

with Valentina Aprigliano, Lorenzo Bencivelli, Alessandro Borin , Francesco Corsello , Stefano Federico , Claire Giordano, Fabrizio Leone , Michele Mancini , Ludovic Panon , Lilia Patrignani, and Stefano Pica . June 2026.
The Impact of Trade Wars on Firms in Third Countries

with Marco Errico , Fabrizio Leone , Ludovic Panon , and Giacomo Romanini . June 2026.
Hidden Exposures in Domestic Supply Chains: The Spread of Foreign Trade Risks

with Alessandro Borin , Fabrizio Leone , Michele Mancini , and Patrick Zoi. December 2025.
Roaring Tariffs: The Global Impact of the 2025 US Trade War

with Michele Mancini and Alessandro Borin . May 2025.
The Impact of EU Sanctions on Russian Imports

with Alessandro Borin , Gabriele Cappadona, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Oleg Itskhoki , Michele Mancini , Maxim Mironov, and Elina Ribakova . May 2023.
The Impact of the War on Russian Imports: A Counterfactual Analysis

with Alessandro Borin and Michele Mancini . November 2022.

Banca d'Italia Covid-19 Notes

Measuring Covid-19 Restrictions in Italy During the Second Wave

March 2021.
Mobility Before Government Restrictions in the Wake of Covid-19

with Ines Buono . November 2020.